Gambia: What Does BREXIT Means for Africa?

Voters in the United Kingdom and its overseas territory - Gibraltar, have exercised their democratic rights in a historic and closely fought referendum on Thursday 23rd June, 2016. The referendum which attracted a turnout of over 30 million eligible voters amounting to 71.8%, asked voters to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. The final outcome of the polls was announced as 51.9% for the LEAVE campaign and 48.1% for REMAIN -  a result described by the BBC as seismic in nature, which consequently prompted the resignation of Prime Minister - David Cameron.

A further breakdown of the votes exposed the deep division in British politics. While Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to ‘remain’ in the EU, Wales and England opted to ‘leave’. In fact, London is the only region in England that voted to remain in the European Union. It also manifested the generation divide in regards to the referendum with majority of young voters opted to ‘remain’ while most people aged over 55, decided to vote for ‘leave’.

Photo source: gambiamonitor

So with a fair amount of  uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the votes, we extract some analysis from the BBC Africa Business Report editor as to what BREXIT might mean for the African continent:

On Trade

The UK's trade deals with Africa are essentially the EU's trade deals with Africa. As the UK exits the European Union, all of those deals will have to be renegotiated. That could take years, leaving trade relations between the UK and Africa in limbo. It's likely, though, that the UK will simply keep the same trade deals with its African partners for the foreseeable future.

On Immigration

Much of the debate running up to the referendum centred on immigration. Now that Brexit has been confirmed, those Africans living in the UK and those hoping to go to the UK will be concerned about their status. It's unclear what exactly a post-Brexit immigration policy would look like, but many analysts are saying that controls are bound to be tighter. Others say that, in order to boost trade relations with several African countries, the UK could make immigration for Commonwealth citizens slightly easier. After all, the IMF predicts that by 2019 the Commonwealth will contribute more to the world's economic output than the EU. So, those African citizens whose countries are members of the Commonwealth may have an easier time immigrating to the UK than those from non-Commonwealth African states.

On Development Aid

The UK has pledged 0.7% of its Gross National Income (GNI) to development aid. Now, while it probably won't go back on that promise, if the UK goes into recession and the GNI falls, that reduces the amount of money for aid in real terms. More than this, the UK was one of the biggest supporters of EU aid programmes in Africa, both politically and financially. While the UK will most likely continue to honour its own aid commitments, a changing attitude to aid could evolve within a UK-less European Union.

Gambiamonitor would however, like to stress that, it’s still early days and no one knows with absolute certainty what a post-BREXIT foreign policy will entail. In the meantime, though, we join the rest of the world to continue to speculate while patiently waiting for the exact consequences of BREXIT to the global economy.